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17

Apothic Red

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 14 · OR 69

Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has improved since fitted with a visor, finishing runner-up at Sligo before producing a career-best to win a 19-runner handicap at this C&D (good to soft) 36 days ago. 7-lb claimer retains the ride and he's on the shortlist again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 1312/09C8C8 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR - · 6f Yie 133C8 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 6f Hvy 13315/03C8BHA64 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 64 · 6f Sft 123 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 64 parBHA61 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 61 · 6f63y Goo 131 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 61 par3/0661OR 61BHA61 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 61 · 7f Yie 131 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 61 parBHA59 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 59 · 6f Yie 141 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 59 par5/0859OR 59BHA61 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 61 · 6f Yie 128 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 61 par29/0861OR 61projClass-projected finish: 4th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29CurraghBHA611st1st0
2026-08-05SligoBHA592nd2nd0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA617th7th0
2026-06-03CurraghBHA615th5th0
2026-04-19CurraghBHA646th6th0
2026-03-15Curragh?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0919/045/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 24100% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 63/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength90%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 24. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20257th150/10%45%+0.45
27/09/202515th80/10%7%+0.07
15/03/20268th125/10%53%+0.53
19/04/20266th50/10%75%+0.75
03/06/20265th10/147%76%+0.29
12/06/20267th5/174%45%-0.28
05/08/20262nd5/174%91%+0.17
29/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47