7
Contrary To Law
3yo Colt · 9-10 · Draw 2 · OR 75
Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f
#21
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#21
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: BHA70
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | BHA77 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Naas | BHA77 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | BHA70 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-28 | Galway | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish21st of 2413% of fieldRange 24-24 · tight 88/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 21st of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 28/07/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 65% | -0.04 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 62% | -0.20 |