13
Gerrit's Gem
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 10 · OR 70
Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f
#14
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | BHA70 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA73 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Curragh | BHA76 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA79 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA83 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | BHA84 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 2470% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 89/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 24. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.33 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 03/05/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 09/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |