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18

Irish Rumour

6yo Mare · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 67

Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f

#19

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#19

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 18-runner handicap (11/2) at Navan (5f, good) last month and shaped better than the bare result when fifth of 17 in handicap at Fairyhouse (6f, good, 4/1) 13 days ago, finishing with running left after meeting trouble. Considered from unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Std 141 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 59 par5/1159OR 59BHA61 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f94y Goo 131 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 61 parBHA58 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 58 · 6f63y Yie 128 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 58 par3/0658OR 58BHA64 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 64 · 7f45y Goo 134 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 64 parBHA62 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 62 · 5f180y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 62 par11/0762OR 62BHA61 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 131 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 61 parBHA59 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 27 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 59 par22/0859OR 59BHA59 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 59 · 5f Gd 142 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 59 parBHA67 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 67 par21/0967OR 67projClass-projected finish: 5th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA675th5th0
2026-09-05NavanBHA591st1st0
2026-08-22CurraghBHA593rd3rd0
2026-08-03NaasBHA6110th10th0
2026-07-11NavanBHA625th5th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA6413th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1118/0622/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2443% of fieldRange 1-21 · tight 37/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength58%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 24. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/20255th6/168%69%+0.01
18/05/202615th12/137%0%-0.37
03/06/20262nd16/116%95%+0.79
18/06/202613th16/116%14%-0.02
11/07/20265th9/276%71%-0.05
03/08/202610th22/10%40%+0.40
22/08/20263rd12/137%92%+0.55
05/09/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
21/09/20265th4/179%75%-0.04