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12

Jon Riggens

8yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 72

Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a long losing run in 9-runner handicap at Navan (6f, good) in June and ran at least as well in defeat when a fast-finishing third of 22 in handicap at Cork (6f, soft, 16/1) 25 days ago. Can make his presence felt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: BHA71
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA80 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Sft 137 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 80 par4/1080OR 80BHA79 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 6f Yie 128 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 79 parBHA79 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 79 · 6f Hvy 140 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 79 par21/1079OR 79BHA77 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 77 · 6f Hvy 140 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 77 parBHA76 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 76 · 7f Sft 136 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 76 par19/0476OR 76BHA75 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 75 · 6f Gd 145 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 75 parBHA71 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 71 · 6f63y Yie 141 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 71 par3/0671OR 71BHA71 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 71 · 5f180y Goo 132 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 71 parBHA72 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 72 · 6f Goo 134 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 72 par9/0972OR 72projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA723rd3rd0
2026-06-07NavanBHA711st1st0
2026-06-03CurraghBHA717th7th0
2026-05-04CurraghBHA756th6th0
2026-04-19CurraghBHA767th7th0
2026-03-15CurraghBHA7710th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1015/033/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2496% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 24. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20258th18/581%13%-0.69
16/10/20252nd10/147%89%+0.42
21/10/20255th9/153%75%+0.22
15/03/202610th12/137%18%-0.19
19/04/20267th40/10%63%+0.63
04/05/20266th10/147%74%+0.26
03/06/20267th4/179%68%-0.11
07/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
09/09/20263rd16/116%90%+0.75