10
Michael's Well
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 20 · OR 74
Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA80 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | BHA85 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Cork | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Navan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Naas | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 2448% of fieldRange 24-24 · tight 85/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -27.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 46% | -0.17 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |