IvyArcIvyArc
1

Nakamura

3yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 16 · OR 79

Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f

#18

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded back-to-back nursery wins over 6f last year. Right back to his best when ½-length second at Fairyhouse (6f, good to soft) in June but below form both starts since, albeit over 7f (still unproven at distance) at Listowel 12 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: BHA70
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA70 @ Navan 28/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 70 · 5f180y Yie 131 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 70 par28/0870OR 70BHA79 @ Cork 30/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 79 · 6f Yie 137 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 79 parBHA88 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 88 · 5f205y Yie 135 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 88 par11/1088OR 88BHA87 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 87 · 5f Sft 135 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 87 parBHA86 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 86 · 5f205y Gd 136 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 86 par9/0586OR 86BHA84 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 84 · 7f Gd 132 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 84 parBHA81 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 141 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 81 par12/0681OR 81BHA82 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 82 · 6f GF 126 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 82 parBHA79 @ Listowel 22/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 79 · 7f15y Yie 139 · below its mark22/09/2026 · OR 79 par22/0979OR 79projClass-projected finish: 21st of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22ListowelBHA797th7th0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA8212th12th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA812nd2nd0
2026-05-23CurraghBHA848th8th0
2026-05-09NaasBHA867th7th0
2026-04-04CorkBHA878th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/084/0412/0622/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2426% of fieldRange 13-24 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength1%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 18th of 24.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
30/09/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
11/10/20254th8/158%77%+0.19
04/04/20268th7/163%0%-0.63
09/05/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
23/05/20268th22/10%42%+0.42
12/06/20262nd4/179%91%+0.12
27/06/202612th10/147%15%-0.32
22/09/20267th14/126%40%+0.14