20
Noble Nation
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 66
Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f
#17
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA70 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Naas | BHA66 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | BHA68 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fairyhouse | BHA69 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2025-04-28 | Naas | BHA76 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-03-23 | Naas | BHA61 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2435% of fieldRange 7-24 · tight 49/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2024 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 13/07/2024 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 76% | +0.11 |
| 07/08/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/03/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/04/2025 | 11th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 22/09/2025 | 18th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 21/10/2025 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |