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14

Nouvel Espoir

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 6 · OR 70

Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took advantage of easing mark when winning at Down Royal in June. Has made the frame all 6 starts since, again not beaten far when ¾-length second of 6 to Smoke Them Out in handicap at Bellewstown (5f, soft) 4 days ago. Respected from same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA64 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f180y Goo 125 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 64 par7/0664OR 64BHA63 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 5f Gd 125 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 61 · 5f Sft 131 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 61 par19/0661OR 61BHA67 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 67 parBHA67 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 67 par18/0767OR 67BHA67 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 67 · 6f GF 127 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 67 parBHA64 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 64 par9/0964OR 64BHA66 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 66 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 66 parBHA70 @ Bellewstown 30/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 5f3y Sft 135 · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 70 par30/0970OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30BellewstownBHA702nd2nd0
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA662nd2nd0
2026-09-09CorkBHA642nd2nd0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA673rd3rd0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA674th4th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA674th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/064/079/0930/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2478% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 24. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/06/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
14/06/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
19/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
04/07/20264th8/158%73%+0.15
18/07/20264th22/10%82%+0.82
09/08/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58
09/09/20262nd16/116%95%+0.79
21/09/20262nd6/168%94%+0.25
30/09/20262nd15/890%80%-0.10