8
Smoke Them Out
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 19 · OR 67
Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
7lbsClass Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Bellewstown | BHA67 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA69 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA74 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA76 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Bellewstown | BHA76 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA76 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2483% of fieldRange 9-24 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength32%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 24. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 62% | -0.04 |
| 19/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 26/06/2026 | 15th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 03/08/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 18/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 30/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |