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6

Tolebi

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 18 · OR 76

Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Regular slow starter who again wasn't seen to best effect under a 10-lb claimer when fifth of 11 in handicap at Listowel (7f, good to soft) 12 days ago, On a competitive mark if at his best but he's not the easiest to score with.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Chantilly 27/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Ver 12427/10C1BHA95 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 95 · 5f Sft 135 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 95 parBHA92 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 92 · 7f Goo 137 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 92 par12/0692OR 92BHA91 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 91 · 7f Gd 141 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 91 parBHA90 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 7f Goo 130 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 90 par8/0790OR 90BHA87 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 87 · 1m98y Yie 137 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 87 parBHA87 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 87 · 5f205y Goo 139 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 87 par3/0887OR 87BHA80 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 80 · 7f Std 168 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 80 parBHA77 @ Listowel 22/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 77 · 7f15y Yie 140 · below its mark22/09/2026 · OR 77 par22/0977OR 77projClass-projected finish: 16th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22ListowelBHA775th5th0
2026-09-10LaytownBHA805th5th0
2026-08-03NaasBHA874th4th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA8711th11th0
2026-07-08FairyhouseBHA904th4th0
2026-06-26CurraghBHA919th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1026/063/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2465% of fieldRange 5-20 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 24. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/202512th40/10%0%0.00
28/03/202612th50/10%15%+0.15
12/06/20264th40/10%40%+0.40
26/06/20269th50/10%50%+0.50
08/07/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
30/07/202611th33/10%17%+0.17
03/08/20264th12/137%25%-0.12
10/09/20265th20/10%56%+0.56
22/09/20265th40/10%60%+0.60