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6

A Wave Of The Sea

10yo Gelding · 11-1 · Draw 11 · OR 74

Curragh · Holden Plant Rentals Lady Riders Classic (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 4f

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful chaser who benefited from the step back up in trip when landing 8-runner handicap at Kilbeggan (3¼m, good to soft) 44 days ago, cruising clear. Hasn't been seen in this sphere for 6 years.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA120 @ Kilbeggan 05/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 120 · 2m4f95y Yie 163 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 120 par5/09120OR 1201 @ Navan 16/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 127 · 3m Hvy 142 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 127 par1 @ Leopardstown 27/12/2025 · Pos 17th of 28 · OR 127 · 3m100y Yie 143 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 127 par27/121OR 127BHA126 @ Thurles 18/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 126 · 2m4f198y Yie 162 · below its mark18/01/2026 · OR 126 par1 @ Leopardstown 01/02/2026 · Pos 14th of 23 · OR 125 · 2m5f107y Sft 140 · below its mark01/02/2026 · OR 125 par1/021OR 125BHA123 @ Wexford 10/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 123 · 2m3f100y Goo 147 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 123 parBHA120 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 120 · 2m4f90y Gd 160 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 120 par15/05120OR 120BHA119 @ Kilbeggan 15/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 119 · 2m4f Goo 145 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 119 parBHA116 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 116 · 3m1f180y Goo 163 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 116 par21/08116OR 116projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA1161st1st0
2026-06-15KilbegganBHA1197th7th0
2026-05-15KilbegganBHA1205th5th0
2026-04-10WexfordBHA12312th12th0
2026-02-01Leopardstown114th14th0
2026-01-18ThurlesBHA1264th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0918/0115/0521/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
16/11/20258th33/10%61%+0.61
27/12/202517th33/10%41%+0.41
18/01/20264th11/142%77%+0.35
01/02/202614th40/10%41%+0.41
10/04/202612th12/137%21%-0.15
15/05/20265th16/116%69%+0.53
15/06/20267th13/266%33%-0.32
21/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47