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12

Alfalfa

8yo Gelding · 10-6 · Draw 10 · OR 65

Curragh · Holden Plant Rentals Lady Riders Classic (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 4f

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

52%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran up to best when scoring in last year's corresponding event from a 2 lb higher mark with this rider in the saddle. After 11 months off, 33/1, wasn't seen to best effect when sixth of 18 at this course (1¼m, heavy) last week, left with lot to do. Rates a big danger if this doesn't come too soon.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA68 @ Naas 13/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 68 · 1m2f84y Yie 135 · beat its mark13/10/2024 · OR 68 par13/1068OR 68BHA69 @ Curragh 22/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 69 · 1m2f Yie 141 · beat its mark22/10/2024 · OR 69 parBHA69 @ Galway 28/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 69 · 1m3f180y Hvy 119 · below its mark28/10/2024 · OR 69 par28/1069OR 69BHA66 @ Gowran Park 02/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 66 · 1m4f40y Goo 126 · below its mark02/06/2025 · OR 66 parBHA64 @ Clonmel 11/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 64 · 2m144y Sft 164 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 64 par11/0964OR 64BHA63 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 22 · OR 63 · 1m2f Yie 163 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 63 parBHA63 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 63 · 1m4f Sft 150 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 63 par4/1063OR 63BHA69 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 21st of 25 · OR 69 · 1m2f Hvy 139 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 69 parBHA66 @ Curragh 27/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 66 · 1m2f Hvy 166 · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 66 par27/0966OR 66projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27CurraghBHA666th6th0
2025-10-21CurraghBHA6921th21th0
2025-10-04CurraghBHA631st1st0
2025-09-28CurraghBHA634th4th0
2025-09-11ClonmelBHA645th5th0
2025-06-02Gowran ParkBHA665th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/102/064/1027/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength84%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/10/20243rd14/126%80%+0.54
22/10/20246th7/282%74%-0.08
28/10/20246th13/266%67%+0.01
02/06/20255th18/15%43%+0.38
11/09/20255th18/15%64%+0.58
28/09/20254th25/10%86%+0.86
04/10/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
21/10/202521st12/137%17%-0.20
27/09/20266th33/10%71%+0.71