14
Mapa
5yo Mare · 10-0 · Draw 6 · OR 46
Curragh · Holden Plant Rentals Lady Riders Classic (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 4f
#13
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA49 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA51 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA53 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA53 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA53 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 77% | +0.14 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 62% | -0.24 |
| 30/01/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 31% | -0.17 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 07/06/2026 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 12/06/2026 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |
| 31/07/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.05 |
| 04/09/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |