7
Prophet's Path
5yo Gelding · 11-1 · Draw 5 · OR 74
Curragh · Holden Plant Rentals Lady Riders Classic (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-09-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-08-21 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-07-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-07-10 | Ffos Las | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-06-22 | Newmarket | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 13-14 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2024 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 10/07/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 30/07/2024 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 21/08/2024 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 07/09/2024 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 26/09/2024 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 89% | -0.03 |