3
Satono Chevalier
8yo Gelding · 11-2 · Draw 8 · OR 75
Curragh · Holden Plant Rentals Lady Riders Classic (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA79 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA79 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | BHA82 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA83 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | BHA83 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | BHA79 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 53% | +0.48 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 31/07/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 20/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 21/09/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |