2
The Mediator
9yo Gelding · 11-3 · Draw 3 · OR 76
Curragh · Holden Plant Rentals Lady Riders Classic (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 4f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: BHA66
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA78 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA78 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Leopardstown | BHA78 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Bellewstown | BHA79 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA79 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | BHA79 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 34/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 29/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |