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8

Lady Arwen

7yo Mare · 9-7 · Draw 13 · OR 73

Curragh · 1xBet.ie Proud Partners Of Irish Sport Apprentice Handicap · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In fine form this season and a 3-time winner, latest at Galway (8.5f) in July. Left poorly placed after a very slow start when eighth of 14 in handicap at Punchestown (9f, good) 19 days ago. Can make her presence felt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA62 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m Std 132 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 62 par30/0162OR 62BHA59 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 59 · 1m Std 141 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 59 parC9 @ Gowran Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 60 · 7f180y Sft 142 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 60 par9/04C9OR 60BHA64 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 64 · 1m50y Yie 134 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 64 parBHA62 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 62 · 1m1f100y Yie 132 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 62 par12/0662OR 62BHA61 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 61 · 1m1f135y Goo 132 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 61 parBHA68 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 68 · 1m123y Yie 138 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 68 par28/0768OR 68BHA73 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 73 · 1m98y Sft 127 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 73 parBHA73 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 73 · 1m1f30y Goo 134 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 73 par15/0973OR 73projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA738th8th0
2026-09-08GalwayBHA732nd2nd0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA681st1st0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA611st1st0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA6210th10th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA646th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0125/0428/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 82/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/202612th40/10%15%+0.15
06/03/202611th50/10%17%+0.17
09/04/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
25/04/20266th10/147%62%+0.14
12/06/202610th18/15%36%+0.30
20/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
28/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
08/09/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
15/09/20268th22/10%46%+0.46