14
Lady Mary Heath
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 16 · OR 63
Curragh · 1xBet.ie Proud Partners Of Irish Sport Apprentice Handicap · 1m
#15
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: BHA64
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA65 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA64 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | BHA64 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA64 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Curragh | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-06-04 | Curragh | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2025 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 04/06/2025 | 12th | 150/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 19/07/2025 | 11th | 300/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 30/03/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.03 |