10
Local Lad
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 1 · OR 68
Curragh · 1xBet.ie Proud Partners Of Irish Sport Apprentice Handicap · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA70 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA76 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Roscommon | BHA87 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 13-16 · tight 82/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength0%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 12/10/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 29/03/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 06/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 27/10/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 19/04/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 21/09/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |