8
Kissed By A Rose
2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 8 · OR 76
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 58/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +12.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |