Aerialist
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 74
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |