1
The Package
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 30/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 11/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 14/08/2026 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |