American Reign
2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 68
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -19.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |