6
Adios Mate
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 6 · OR 82
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
74%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |