Fuoco Vivo
3yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 71
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |