4
Western Shaft
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 63
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 15/01/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |