Gabaldon
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 102
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | -2th | +6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2024 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 19/06/2024 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 96% | +0.80 |
| 22/03/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |