3
Sabian
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 93
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength64%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 28/06/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/07/2024 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |