Sosua Summer
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 101
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 01/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |