7
Holy Stick
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 84
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |