Torch Is Passed
4yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 79
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 06/02/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 04/04/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/06/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 26/07/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 10/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |