The Dove Rules
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 24/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |