1
Uncaptured Dove
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 81
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2024 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 30/01/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 18/04/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 15/05/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 18/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |