Would I Lie To You
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 7 · OR 64
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/04/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |