Strike

2yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 69

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Gulfstream	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-20	Gulfstream	?	8th	7th	+1	2.6
2026-06-20	Gulfstream	?	2nd	1st	+1	8.6
2026-05-22	Gulfstream	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-04-19	Gulfstream	?	2nd	1st	+1	8.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 32/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength54%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/04/2026	2nd	4/11	98%	80%	-0.18
22/05/2026	6th	1/3	98%	17%	-0.82
20/06/2026	2nd	13/8	91%	83%	-0.08
20/07/2026	8th	10/3	82%	0%	-0.82
06/09/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	83%	+0.07