7
Capital Connection
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 97
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |