Captain Mercury
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 4 · OR 98
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |