5
Il Cavallino
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 91
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 28/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 20/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |