8
Trouble Ahead
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 8 · OR 88
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 6-8 · tight 78/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |