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2

Agate

2yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 2 · OR 91

Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -5.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f Fm 11921/05C6C6 @ Ellis Park 05/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 77 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 77 par5/07C6OR 77C5 @ Kentucky Downs 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 82 par9/09C5OR 82projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kentucky Downs?3rd8th−4
2026-07-05Ellis Park?1st8th−6
2026-05-21Churchill Downs?6th13th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/055/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -14.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20266th25/10%44%+0.44
05/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
09/09/20263rd13/266%82%+0.16