3
Bold Leadership
2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 3 · OR 92
Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -56.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |