8
Hemingway
2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 8 · OR 71
Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲6
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -5.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 15th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +74.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |