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4

Heracles

2yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 4 · OR 93

Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f110y Fm 1204/07C6C5 @ Colonial Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 96 par7/09C5OR 96
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Colonial Downs?3rd8th−4
2026-07-04Gulfstream?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -71.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
07/09/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19