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2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 10 · OR 88

Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲3

Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.2

Today:

Class gap: -2.7

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-03	Belmont Park	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-09-12	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	+0	5.2
2026-08-16	Saratoga	?	1st	8th	−6	2.3
2026-07-18	Saratoga	?	6th	13th	−6	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 49/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength74%

Delivery trend +13.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/07/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
16/08/2026	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63
12/09/2026	5th	20/1	0%	43%	+0.43
03/10/2026	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53