7
Mad Mo
2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 7 · OR 70
Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲6
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -5.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 15th | −6 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 14th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 7-8 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength36%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |