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11

Mid American

2yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 11 · OR 87

Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -5.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 17/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f110y 11917/07C6C6 @ Ellis Park 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 73 · 5f110y Fm 119 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 73 par9/08C6OR 73C5 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 80 · 6f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 80 par29/08C5OR 80projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Kentucky Downs?1st6th−4
2026-08-09Ellis Park?1st8th−6
2026-07-17Ellis Park?7th14th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/079/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +20.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
09/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
29/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29