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6

Popcorn

2yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 88

Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f110y Fm 12014/07C6C5 @ Colonial Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 82 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 82 par7/09C5OR 82projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Colonial Downs?1st6th−4
2026-07-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 3-3 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength82%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
07/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11