5
Real Goodbar
2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 5 · OR 89
Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -28.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |