Trim Castle

2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 1 · OR 90

Keeneland · Race 10 - Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▲5

Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.7

Today:

Class gap: -5.3

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-09	Kentucky Downs	?	5th	10th	−4	1.0
2026-08-29	Kentucky Downs	?	3rd	9th	−5	1.5
2026-07-25	Colonial Downs	?	1st	8th	−6	1.7
2026-06-19	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	10th	−6	1.0
2026-05-28	Churchill Downs	?	2nd	9th	−6	1.3
2026-04-16	Keeneland	?	9th	16th	−6	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 37/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength48%

Delivery trend +10.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/04/2026	9th	12/1	37%	11%	-0.26
28/05/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	83%	+0.46
19/06/2026	3rd	5/2	87%	67%	-0.20
25/07/2026	1st	11/10	94%	100%	+0.06
29/08/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	75%	+0.07
09/09/2026	5th	25/1	0%	64%	+0.64